What Nintendo really needs to do is pay more attention to third parties. The current impression in the development community — and it’s been this case almost since the beginning — is that it’s kind of a waste of money and effort to pay too much attention to Nintendo’s box. Sony has the marketshare, so put all of your money on Sony and you don’t have to think; you don’t have to worry.

Nintendo needs to conduct some psychology experiments. Figure out what it’ll take to change that impression — to give third-part developers confidence that they’ll be on at least an equal level with Sony, that there aren’t any demographic problems, that Nintendo intends to listen to and to help developers even more than Sony will. Lower licencing fees. Get a few key secret blockbuster third-party games contracted for launch — and get all of this ready before they unveil their next system.

Then they have to go to the public — convince them that Sony is the old guard, and is no longer hip. Go a bit more in-your-face about Sony’s weak spots (the fact that their systems break if you breathe on them, for instance). Make people think “hey, they’re right. Sony’s become kind of boring now. Maybe I’ve been missing something over here…” Position themselves as the mythological kings of old, revitalized, reborn, and ready to reclaim their throne from those who have been keeping it warm for the last decade or so.

This is what has to be done, in a nutshell. People won’t care enough otherwise, to make a huge difference over the performance of the previous two consoles. If Nintendo doesn’t have the constant and substantial software support, and if they’re still seen as kind of dismissable and fuddy-duddy by the mainstream, they’ll not be in a good position.

It’s all about relations; public and private. Nintendo doesn’t like to talk to people. They need to change that, fast. Make everyone really, REALLY believe that they’ve got a winner this time — as Sega did during the first few months of the Dreamcast. Only more so. And keep that momentum. Don’t let go. They need to pace themselves, and plan ahead to always have a next card to slap into place. Make sure the public and press never come too far off the launch high. Don’t just make it, then lean back and expect things will work out (as Nintendo has been wont to do). That people and games will come. It won’t. They won’t.

Another thing that’s important is to beware of potential sabotage from Sony. Try to anticipate what weird tricks they might pull, and build in some safeguards. Always have something better stashed away, to counter a weird claim from the other side.

So I guess there are two themes. Communication and planning.

If they can accomplish all of the above, Nintendo will have a winner. In theory they have got more weight and substance as a videogame company; if they’re just smart enough to bend and use that fact in a comparative, qualitative sense — and if they’ve enough developers on their side to back it up with — people will be attracted.